R1-07 Four-bet hypothesis sheet

Supports slide 6.

Four hunches went on the wall. Each one had a riskiest assumption, and each one met evidence.

Bet	The hunch	Started	Riskiest assumption	What the evidence said	Fate
Assured	Women in business will buy a book, then courses and coaching	Jody’s book, May 2025	The book is a funnel, not the product	Readers bought the book and praised it. Nobody enrolled in a class. The income is Jody’s.	Redeveloped as founder enablement
DeepFeedback	Founders will pay for AI customer research	Built from Looplytic with two Canadian partners, May 2025	Founders pay	About $35K of revenue over its life, in the JV account. Never enough to carry a team.	Killed: partners stopped funding 13 Jan 2026
PRFAQ	Founders will pay to pressure-test ideas Amazon-style	Designed with Mike Boysen, Nov 2025	A sales motion exists without consulting	Fully built. Pull came only through consulting.	Held. The method still runs inside the company.
STIGViewer	36,000 free visits a month means a buyer is in there somewhere	Handed to us Sep 2025	The user, the buyer and the seller are the same person	They’re three different people (R1-05)	The anchor

How the fourth one came to us

Helmut Neher ran STIGViewer for UCF while I ran UCF. After I left, DoD and DISA lost confidence in UCF and, in a meeting in DC, instructed Helmut to hand the product to us. A GSA coding team out of Maryland took it first and didn’t deliver. We took it back. Michael was made owner on 26 Sep 2025, and the repository moved by 1 Oct 2025.

Sources

• R1-02 Sprint 8 Lean Canvas (Assured hunch and riskiest assumption).
• Capstone Facts Reconciled, 17 Oct 2026: DeepFeedback JV revenue and the 13 Jan 2026 funding stop; Assured income; STIGViewer origin.
• Handover record: GitHub ownership change, 26 Sep 2025, and repository move by 1 Oct 2025 (Gmail threads 1844336157303893216, 1844805306889066469).
• The deck spine (spine.js): bet start dates and fates.