R2-01 Experiment loop map (Sprint 19 assessment)

Supports slide 11.

The first six rows of slide 11 come from my Module 2 Sprint 19 assessment (submitted September 2025). Each test had a risky assumption, a hypothesis, target metrics and a verdict before I saw the numbers. The last two rows are STIGViewer, and they live in R2-02 and R2-03.

Assured (Jody’s book, assuredbook.com)

Risky assumption: our target market will care enough to read or listen to advance chapters and give their input.

Test	Audience and duration	Target	Actual
1. LinkedIn voice and text DMs, my network	485 women in my connections; 3 weeks	~20% contacted; ~10% “I’m interested”; ≥5% downloads	330 contacted (68.04%); 62 interested (18.79%); 5 downloads (8.06%); 3 endorsements
2. LinkedIn DMs, Jody’s women’s groups	2,500 group members; 5 weeks	Same	978 contacted (39.12%); 241 interested (24.64%); 50 downloads (20.75%); 18 endorsements
3. Redesigned page: one survey, one testimonial question; re-contact responders	223 eligible, 24 sent so far; ongoing	≥50% respond	13 of 24 responded (54.17%)

What I decided: my network gives credibility, not scale. Jody’s groups are the scale channel, so we persevered there. The leak was the ask, not the channel, so the one-question testimonial page stayed.

DeepFeedback.ai

Risky assumption: founders will care enough about qualitative synthesis pain to try an AI tool built by a fellow student.

Test	Audience and duration	Target	Actual
2. Peer DMs in the OneDay Founder Help thread, free code	5 founders; 1 week	≥50% try it	2 signed up (40%)
2b. Slack DMs across the cohort via TexAu ($29 of tooling)	1,146 students; 1 week	≥80% see it; ≥40% respond	227 saw it (19.81%); 117 of those replied (51.54%)
3. Google Ads, 10 keywords, $10 a day, no dedicated landing page	August run	~0.5% clicks; signups	2,357 impressions; 225 clicks (9.55% CTR); 112 signup-page hits; 3 signups
5. Same campaign rerun after the mobile and load-time fix	September run	Same	26.9% CTR (see note); 0 signups

What I decided: deep engagement when people see it, low visibility in Slack, and a trust cliff at the signup step. The JV partners stopped investing on 13 January 2026 and the bet was killed.

Note on the September rerun: my assessment reports it two ways. The table shows 221 impressions and 62 clicks (28.05%). The narration says 375 impressions, 101 clicks, 26.9%. The slide uses 26.9%. Both say the same thing: clicks rose and signups went to zero.

Sources:

• Module 2 Sprint 19 Assessment, “Traction (or the lack thereof)”, experiment maps for assuredbook.com and DeepFeedback.ai (OneDay project file)
• Capstone Spine Timeline: DeepFeedback partners’ 13 Jan 2026 Slack message stopping investment