R3-01 Assumption ledger

Supports slide 17.

Each bet started with one riskiest assumption. I tested it, then decided. The ledger shows the test, what came back and whether the assumption held.

Bet	Riskiest assumption	How I tested it	What came back	Status
DeepFeedback	Founders will pay for AI customer research	Paid ads to a signup funnel (Module 2 Sprint 19)	One in four who saw the ads clicked through and half of them reached signup, but trust collapsed at the email field. About $35K over its life, in the JV account.	Invalidated. Killed 13 Jan 2026.
Assured	The book is a funnel to classes and coaching	The book and its site, live from May 2025	Readers bought and praised it: 24 testimonials on the site by Nov 2025. Classes: none sold, per my own account.	Invalidated. Redeveloped Mar 2026.
PRFAQ	A sales motion exists without consulting	Built prfaq.dev in two 8-hour sprints and offered it	Pull came only through consulting conversations. No consulting revenue shows in email.	Not shown. Held Jun 2026.
STIGViewer	The user, the buyer and the seller are one person	Pricing page, one-question emails, partner talks	They’re three. Practitioners use it free (“I was surprised to see the fees even existing,” IT Convergence, 23 Sep). A compliance lead or program office signs. Partners resell.	Invalidated. Pricing and channel rebuilt around three people.
STIGViewer, now	People who used STIG content free for years will pay for API and MCP once they understand why	MCP beta from 19 Sep; pricing conversations; Strike Graph’s own pricing history	Heidi moved from “surprised” to assigning an engineer once she heard the reason. Strike Graph’s customers wouldn’t pay for MCP separately, so we bundle it. 2 organisations pay through Stripe.	Open. This is the assumption the North Star tests (R3-07).

Not yet evidenced: a source for “nobody enrolled in a class” beyond my own account.

Sources:

• DeepFeedback funnel: Module 2 Sprint 19 Assessment (“Traction Crisis or Trust Cliff?”, slides 31 to 33)
• DeepFeedback revenue and kill date: Capstone Facts Reconciled (JV account, about $35K); partners’ message 13 Jan 2026, Slack C09NCP7KDCM p1768351371796249
• Assured testimonials: Slack #assured-book, 14 Nov 2025 (“currently 24, goal 100”); Capstone Spine Timeline
• PRFAQ build: email to OneDay, 22 Jun 2026 (Gmail thread 1868696017704623008); consulting revenue search: Capstone Spine Timeline
• Heidi quote: Weekly Check-In 23 Sep 2026; her turnaround: Weekly Check-In 30 Sep 2026
• Strike Graph MCP pricing (Micah Spieler, 24 Sep) and the bundling call: Weekly Check-In 30 Sep 2026
• Paying organisations: R2-05; Capstone Facts Reconciled