R5-04 Forecast model

Supports slide 30 and slide 38.

Twelve months of actuals from QuickBooks, then twelve months of forecast, Nov 2026 to Oct 2027. Built 17 Oct 2026. The revenue side is modelled, and labelled that way on the slide.

Actuals: QuickBooks P&L, Apr to Sep 2026

Month	Income	Expenses
Apr 2026	$0	$12,640
May 2026	$0	$15,987
Jun 2026	$0	$18,216
Jul 2026	$0	$12,764
Aug 2026	$0	$10,405
Sep 2026	$0	$10,413
Total	$0	$80,423.91

Six-month average about $13.4K a month. Aug and Sep about $10.4K. Income reads $0 because the JV, consulting and settlement money ran outside QuickBooks, and the Stripe payouts ($1,625 since May, see R2-05) aren’t booked there yet. Booking them is an open item.

Assumptions

Assumption	Value	Status
Strike Graph embed	400 licences Nov to Jan, then 50 a month	My planning figure from the 15 Oct 2026 conversation. Terms not yet signed.
Net per licence	$2,450 (70% of $3,500)	My planning assumption. Terms not yet signed. Booked in the month the licence sells.
Organic funnel	35 signups a month, 58% verified, 3% paid, $2,000 ACV, 33% annual churn	Signups and verification measured; 3% modelled (R5-09)
Expenses	$10,409 a month	The Aug to Sep QuickBooks run-rate, held flat
Opening cash	about $140K	Founder figure, 16 Oct 2026, preliminary until reconciled to bank (R6-05)

Base case, month by month

Month	Strike Graph licences	Licence revenue	Organic paying orgs	Organic revenue	Total revenue	Expenses	Cash at month end
Nov 26	134	$328,300	0.6	$101	$328,401	$10,409	$457,992
Dec 26	133	$325,850	1.2	$200	$326,049	$10,409	$773,632
Jan 27	133	$325,850	1.8	$295	$326,144	$10,409	$1,089,367
Feb 27	50	$122,500	2.3	$386	$122,885	$10,409	$1,201,844
Mar 27	50	$122,500	2.9	$475	$122,974	$10,409	$1,314,409
Apr 27	50	$122,500	3.4	$561	$123,060	$10,409	$1,427,059
May 27	50	$122,500	3.9	$644	$123,143	$10,409	$1,539,793
Jun 27	50	$122,500	4.3	$725	$123,223	$10,409	$1,652,607
Jul 27	50	$122,500	4.8	$802	$123,300	$10,409	$1,765,498
Aug 27	50	$122,500	5.3	$877	$123,375	$10,409	$1,878,464
Sep 27	50	$122,500	5.7	$950	$123,448	$10,409	$1,991,503
Oct 27	50	$122,500	6.1	$1,020	$123,518	$10,409	$2,104,612
Year	850	$2,082,500	6.1 at m12	about $7,000	$2,089,520	$124,908	$2,104,612

The organic columns are recomputed from the stated assumptions and agree with the model within $3 a month. Totals come from the model file.

What the slide says, checked

• Year one about $2.1M revenue. $2,089,520. Confirmed.
• Cash about $2.1M at month 12. $2,104,612. Confirmed.
• Break-even month one in base (slide 38). November revenue $328,401 against $10,409 of expenses. Confirmed.
• Downside cash $53K, organic revenue about $1K a month by month 12 (slide 38). $52,975 and $1,018. Confirmed (see R5-05).

Not yet evidenced: “$12K of it organic” on slide 30. The model’s organic revenue in year one is about $7,000. $12K is the organic run-rate at month 12 (6.1 organisations × $2,000 ACV), not year-one revenue.

Not yet evidenced: “200 licences in Q1 is twenty times the run-rate” on slide 38. Half-attach Q1 revenue is about $490K against about $31K of Q1 expenses, which is about 16 times.

Not yet evidenced: “about $5 organic revenue per verified signup, monthly” on slide 38. At month 12 the model gives $1,018 of organic revenue over about 244 verified signups, which is about $4.

The honest reading

The business in year one is the Strike Graph embed. The organic funnel adds about six paying organisations. If the embed slips, see the downside in R5-05.

Sources:

• QuickBooks P&L, Apr to Sep 2026, as recorded in Capstone Facts Reconciled (17 Oct 2026)
• deck-src/model.json, the twelve-month model behind slides 30, 31 and 38, built 17 Oct 2026
• 15 Oct 2026 Strike Graph meeting and my planning figures ($3,500, 70%, 400 in Q1); terms not yet signed
• R5-09 funnel model; Sprint 12 Unit Economics Data Pack v3