R5-05 · backs slide 31
R5-05 Scenario sheet
Supports slide 31.
Four futures from one model. Only the Strike Graph licence count and, in the downside, expenses change. The organic funnel is the same in every row.
Assumptions shared by all four
- Organic: 35 signups a month, 58% verified, 3% paid (modelled), $2,000 ACV, 33% annual churn. About 6 paying organisations by month 12.
- Strike Graph: $2,450 net per licence (70% of $3,500). This is my planning assumption until terms are signed.
- Expenses $10,409 a month; opening cash about $140K.
The four
| Scenario | Strike Graph licences, year 1 | Organic paying orgs, m12 | Revenue, year 1 | Cash, m12 | Management response |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base | 850 (400 in Q1, then 50 a month) | 6 | $2,089,520 | $2,104,612 | Hold the plan. Deliver the embed. Review at the Monday scorecard. |
| Half partner attach | 425 (200 in Q1, then 25 a month) | 6 | $1,048,270 | $1,063,362 | Founder time to Strike Graph’s sales team and the quote path. No new build until attach recovers. |
| Double partner attach | 1,700 (800 in Q1, then 100 a month) | 6 | $4,172,020 | $4,187,112 | Content delivery and partner pages first. Hire the Growth Lead in Q1, not Q3. |
| Downside | 0 | 6 | $7,020 | $52,975 | Embed slips, CMMC review drags past Q2 2027. Cut tooling and contractors to $6K a month from month 6. Keep the engine and the gate. Decide at month 6. |
Revenue by month
| Month | Base | Half attach | Double attach | Downside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26 | $328,401 | $164,251 | $656,701 | $101 |
| Dec 26 | $326,049 | $163,124 | $651,899 | $199 |
| Jan 27 | $326,144 | $163,219 | $651,994 | $294 |
| Feb 27 | $122,885 | $61,635 | $245,385 | $385 |
| Mar 27 | $122,974 | $61,724 | $245,474 | $474 |
| Apr 27 | $123,060 | $61,810 | $245,560 | $560 |
| May 27 | $123,143 | $61,893 | $245,643 | $643 |
| Jun 27 | $123,223 | $61,973 | $245,723 | $723 |
| Jul 27 | $123,300 | $62,050 | $245,800 | $800 |
| Aug 27 | $123,375 | $62,125 | $245,875 | $875 |
| Sep 27 | $123,448 | $62,198 | $245,948 | $948 |
| Oct 27 | $123,518 | $62,268 | $246,018 | $1,018 |
| Year 1 revenue | $2,089,520 | $1,048,270 | $4,172,020 | $7,020 |
| Cash, m12 | $2,104,612 | $1,063,362 | $4,187,112 | $52,975 |
Downside, month by month
| Month | Organic revenue | Expenses | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26 | $101 | $10,409 | $129,692 |
| Dec 26 | $199 | $10,409 | $119,482 |
| Jan 27 | $294 | $10,409 | $109,367 |
| Feb 27 | $385 | $10,409 | $99,344 |
| Mar 27 | $474 | $10,409 | $89,409 |
| Apr 27 | $560 | $6,000 | $83,968 |
| May 27 | $643 | $6,000 | $78,611 |
| Jun 27 | $723 | $6,000 | $73,334 |
| Jul 27 | $800 | $6,000 | $68,134 |
| Aug 27 | $875 | $6,000 | $63,009 |
| Sep 27 | $948 | $6,000 | $57,957 |
| Oct 27 | $1,018 | $6,000 | $52,975 |
What the four say together
The organic funnel is the same six organisations in every row. Year one is the Strike Graph embed, and the downside is the one where it slips. That concentration is the risk I’m naming. The DTA and CSA embeds are how it comes down.
Not yet evidenced: the Q3 timing for the Growth Lead that the double-attach response moves to Q1. Sprint 24 names the role and the reasons, not a quarter.
Note: slide 38 says the downside cuts tooling and contractors “to zero”. The model and this slide cut expenses to $6K a month from month 6. The two slides need to agree.
Sources:
deck-src/model.json, 17 Oct 2026 (all revenue and cash figures)- R5-04 forecast model; R5-09 funnel model
- 15 Oct 2026 Strike Graph meeting and my planning figures; terms not yet signed
- Sprint 24 micro-assessment v2 (Growth Lead role)