R5-09 Funnel model

Supports slide 28.

One funnel, one set of denominators. Every conversion rate on slide 28 uses the stage directly above it.

Stage	Count	Period	Status
Visits	about 36,000 a month	PostHog, test accounts excluded	Measured (see R1-01)
Signups started	192	1 May to mid-Oct 2026	Measured
Verified	112	same	Measured: 58% of signups
Paying	3% of verified		Modelled
Paying, actual	2 through Stripe, 1 invoiced, 19 covered by DoD	to 17 Oct 2026	Measured (see R2-05)

The rates

• Signup to verified: 58% (112 ÷ 192). Caution: the Sprint 12 audit found the event-level 58% overcounts and the person-level 25% undercounts, because identity breaks at checkout. I planned on 40%.
• Verified to paid: 3%. Modelled, from the OpenView freemium range of 2% to 5%.
• Visit to signup. 192 signups over about five and a half months is about 35 a month. Against 36,000 visits a month that’s about 0.1%.

Not yet evidenced: the 0.5% visit-to-signup rate on slide 28. That figure comes from dividing all 192 signups since May by one month of visits. The monthly rate is about 0.1%.

What feeds the forecast

R5-04 uses 35 signups a month, 58% verified, 3% paid, $2,000 ACV and 33% annual churn. That gives about 0.6 new paying organisations a month and about 6 by month twelve.

Sources:

• PostHog web analytics for STIGViewer.com (visits)
• SAMS funnel events since 1 May 2026, as recorded in the Sprint 12 pack and the Founder Operating System (signup_started 192, verified 112)
• Sprint 12 Unit Economics Data Pack, v3 (verification caveat, 3% benchmark)
• Stripe customer table via SAMS, 17 Oct 2026