R6-02 Valuation workbook

Supports slide 36.

A range, not a number. The width of the range is the Strike Graph dependency. I used low-end content multiples, not platform multiples. It values MoxyWolf LLC’s operating assets only. The Vertex Holdings positions (SunCoast, Strike Graph, DTA) are excluded.

The range

Case	Method	Input	Arithmetic	Range
Floor	Cost to replicate: expenses, engine, content	About $13.4K a month average expenses (QuickBooks, Apr to Sep 2026)	18 × $13.4K ≈ $241K	About $0.25M
Organic only	3× to 5× modelled ARR	About $12K ARR, organic funnel alone	$36K to $60K	Under $0.1M
Embed lands (base)	2× to 4× modelled year-one revenue	$2.09M, base model	$4.2M to $8.4M	$4M to $8M
Half attach	2× to 4× modelled year-one revenue	$1.05M, half-attach model	$2.1M to $4.2M	$2M to $4M

What the model assumes

• Strike Graph: 400 licences November to January, then 50 a month, at $2,450 net each (70% of $3,500). These are my planning figures. The terms aren’t signed.
• Organic funnel: 35 signups a month, 58% verified, 3% of verified convert to paid (modelled, not observed), $2,000 ACV, 33% annual churn.
• Expenses flat at $10,409 a month, the Aug to Sep QuickBooks run-rate.

How to read it

If the embed lands, the company is worth millions on modest multiples. If it doesn’t, the organic business alone is worth less than its replacement cost. That’s the honest spread.

Not yet evidenced: the floor’s “18 months” period. QuickBooks covers six months of expenses (Apr to Sep 2026). The 18-month figure extends that average back over the build. The v1.2 build note described the floor differently, as cash plus positions with no revenue credit.

Sources:

• Model and scenario outputs: deck-src/model.json, 17 Oct 2026 (base 12-month revenue $2,089,520; half $1,048,270).
• Organic $12K ARR and the multiples: Capstone Deck v1.2 Build Note, valuation section.
• Expenses: QuickBooks P&L Apr to Sep 2026, total $80,423.91.
• Range, not a single number: Dorian’s decision, 17 Oct 2026 (Capstone Facts Reconciled).