R6-06 Break-even note

Supports slide 38.

Break-even here means monthly revenue above monthly expenses, from the twelve-month model (November 2026 to October 2027).

Element	Answer
When	Base and half attach: month one, November 2026. Downside: not within twelve months.
How	Paying organisations × ACV against the QuickBooks expense run-rate, about $10.4K a month (Aug $10,405, Sep $10,413).
What	The paid tier with API and MCP bundled, plus partner revenue share. No services line except by exception.
Who	I sell first every day. Michael ships. Partners carry distribution. The Growth Lead comes when partner revenue pays for it.
Where it bends	Downside: no partner attach. Cut tooling and contractors from month 6, keep the engine and the gate, decide at month 6.

The numbers behind it

Scenario	Month 1 revenue	Month 1 expenses	Month 12 revenue	Cash, month 12
Base	$328,401	$10,409	$123,518	$2,104,612
Half attach	$164,251	$10,409	$62,268	$1,063,362
Downside	$101	$10,409	$1,018	$52,975

In the downside, organic revenue reaches about $1K a month by month 12, and expenses drop to $6,000 a month from month 6.

All revenue on the Strike Graph side is modelled. It rests on my planning figures ($2,450 net a licence, 400 in Q1, then 50 a month), and the terms aren’t signed.

Two corrections for slide 38

• The half-attach card says 200 licences in Q1 is “twenty times the run-rate”. The model says about sixteen: $164K a month against $10.4K, or $490K a quarter against $31.2K.
• The “about $5 organic revenue per verified signup, monthly” tile isn’t backed by the model. The v1.2 build note recorded it as about $5 of cost per verified signup a month. One of the two labels is wrong.

Sources:

• deck-src/model.json, 17 Oct 2026 (all scenario figures above).
• QuickBooks P&L Apr to Sep 2026 (run-rate).
• Capstone Deck v1.2 Build Note, break-even section.